The US Senate campaign in Arkansas has changed dramatically with the entrance of Democratic Lt. Gov. Bill Halter into the race. It had appeared until the last few weeks that Senator Blanche Lincoln had only the Republican primary winner to concern herself with. A huge plus for Lincoln was twofold: 1) She would not have to expend her campaign funds in order to defeat a Democratic challenger and 2) Democratic donations were being sent her way without competition from a challenger. Even with those advantages, Lincoln was lagging behind the Republicans in the polls.

Almost immediately after entering the race, Halter had a significant impact on Lincoln’s campaign. MoveOn.org alone has poured more than $1 million into Halter’s campaign and at least three unions have already pledged $1 million each to support his bid for office. The union support comes primarily because they are angry over Lincoln’s opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for unions to organize their workers. Even with $4 million from MoveOn.org and the three unions, Halter is painting himself as someone who will fight special interests in Washington. That, in itself, seems to be a huge contradiction. Charlie Cook said, “Even if Halter believes that he isn’t running to Lincoln’s left, the left is running with Halter.”

The White House and many in the congressional Democratic leadership are continuing their support of Lincoln, believing she has the best chance to defeat the Republican primary winner. She is making an effort to place state loyalty above party loyalty, saying, “I don’t answer to my party, I answer to Arkansas.” However, that approach could come back to haunt Lincoln in the primary when she is dependent upon partisan Democrats for victory. Liberals are not happy with the fact that Lincoln has been putting some distance between herself and the public option in healthcare reform – an option that Halter supports. Conservatives are not happy with Lincoln because she supported healthcare reform without an option.

According to the latest Rasmussen Report, the top five Republican primary candidates all lead Lincoln by margins of 2-9 percentage points. Whereas, Lincoln was able to focus on winning the general election, she must now survive the primary. In order to survive the primary, she will be pressured to move toward the left and that would not serve her well in the general election. On the other hand, she may come out of the primary election even stronger if she takes a centrist approach. If she does, it will not be the norm as the incumbent usually loses energy and steam through a tough primary battle.

The Cook Reports still has Arkansas listed as a “Toss Up” state, but it is apparent from the polls that the Republicans are building up a solid lead.