The top Republican candidates seeking to defeat Harry Reid continue to lead him by fairly wide margins, but the Las Vegas Review-Journal threw a “what-if” into the process and found that Reid could potentially make his way back into the lead if a Tea Party candidate entered the race, according to a Mason-Dixon poll conducted Feb. 22-24 for the newspaper. The conclusion had Reid leading the Republican candidate 36% – 32% with the Tea Party candidate taking 18% of the vote. It was determined that the Tea Party candidate would take 22% of the vote away from the Republican candidate along with 22% of the independent votes which is significant considering Lowden and Tarkanian are currently drawing 50% of the independent vote.

Former state GOP chairman Sue Lowden , who is leading the race for the Republican party’s nomination, leads Reid 52% – 39%, with 9% undecided. Former UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian leads Reid 51% – 40% with 9% undecided.

Some in the Tea Party movement seem to be more concerned about making a third party statement than they are in rooting out the moderates and the liberals; and the reasoning for doing so is not without merit. While it is understood that the Las Vegas Review-Journal experiment is hypothetical, it serves to point out how dramatically a Tea/Third Party candidate could affect the final outcome of the election. One thing we know for sure is that a Tea Party candidate would alter the game in Reid’s favor.

The findings were enough to cause Brandon Hall, Reid’s campaign manager to say, “For the first time, the Review-Journal is releasing a poll that shows Senator Reid winning.” A group carrying the name Tea Party of Nevada filed organizational paperwork in January with the Nevada secretary of state to run a candidate in the Primary. However, the presumed candidate John Ashjian, a Las Vegas businessman has no known connection to the Tea Party movement, leaving he and his affiliates under intense scrutiny.

David Damore who is a UNLV political science professor, said it would be unlikely for the Tea Party to draw 18% of the vote in November, “but even eight or nine percent could make a difference.” That could be a significant number as Lowden currently leads Reid by 13% and Tarkanian is leading Reid by 11%. However, the leads of both Republicans have increased significantly since January.

Most pollsters agree that independent voters will be a key in defeating Reid and it is to his advantage for the voters to become divided. Four more years of Harry Reid is not a risk worth taking – for the danger is far too great. Conservatives must be united with one purpose in 2010 in the Nevada Senate race, which is making sure Harry Reid is defeated. With that said, there are lessons to be learned from the Nevada Third Party experiment that apply to other races all across the country. The loss of an election by percentage points could be the victory of a liberal or moderate.

While there is an inherent risk in third party candidates, it does not mean that a third party candidate can never win. As a matter of fact, with the passing of time and the changing political climate, we may see more third party candidates begin to take elections in the future. But the risks must always be taken into account, especially in a transitional year as critical as 2010.