The race drawing the most national attention in 2010 is the US Senate race in Nevada, closely followed by the US Senate race in Arizona. A loss for Harry Reid will translate into a loss of one third of the Obama-Reid-Pelosi team, which will significantly impact the 2012 election cycle. A loss for John McCain would have ramifications of its own within the Republican Party.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters in the state finds Sue Lowden, ex-chairman of the Nevada Republican Party leading Reid 51%-38%. A Mason Dixon/Las Vegas Review-Journal survey of registered Nevada voters shows Lowden leading Reid 52%-39%. Rasmussen has businessman Danny Tarkanian leading Reid 50%-37%, while Mason Dixon/LVRJ has Tarkanian leading 51%-40. Sharron Angle who is running third behind Lowden and Tarkanian in the Republican polls also has a 46%-38% lead in the Rasmussen Report, up from 44%-40% in January.

Much is being made of the presence of potential “supposed” Tea Party-backed candidate John Ashijian – who is not a Tea Party candidate in any sense of “tea party definition”. Those who make up the Nevada Tea Party movement (23%) are well aware that Ashijian is not one of their own. Though some in the media try to portray Ashijian as a Tea Party candidate who will steal votes from the Republican candidates – that is not likely to happen. If anything, he could take liberal votes from Reid if he is still around for the general election.

Reid continues to fall in the polls, due in large part to his do-or-die commitment to Healthcare Reform which is opposed by the majority of Nevada voters. 56% oppose healthcare reform which is higher than the national average with 51% fearing the federal government more than private insurance companies. At times, it seems like Reid is far more committed to winning healthcare reform now, than he is in winning the general election in November.

In a recent interview concerning healthcare reform on ‘Face to Face with Jon Ralston’ Reid said, ‘I’ve had many conversations this week with the president, his chief of staff, and Speaker Pelosi. And we’re really trying to move forward on this.’ Reid also said that while Democrats have a number of options, they would likely use the budget reconciliation process to pass a series of fixes to the first healthcare bill passed by the Senate in November. These changes are needed to secure votes for passage of that original Senate bill in the House.

This is the same Harry Reid who in a state of “apparent” shock over reconciliation talk at the Healthcare Summit said, “No one has talked about reconciliation, but that’s what you folks have talked about ever since that came out, as if it’s something that has never been done before. Now, we as leaders here, the speaker and I, have not talked about doing reconciliation as the only way out of all this. Of course it’s not the only way out.” The people of Nevada are very straight to the point in what they say, but Reid has a way of “not saying what he said, but still saying what he said” that is deeply irritating the voters.