Today, the good people of Pennsylvania are mourning the loss of Democratic Rep. John Murtha, who originally won his seat in a special election back in 1974. To get a feel for how long ago that was, Richard Nixon was the president. Whether or not one agreed with the positions Murtha took (many were controversial to all sides), his influence and presence could not be denied.

Though a Democrat, Murtha served in what has traditionally been known as a swing district that has recently shown GOP tendencies. Political analyst Charlie Cook said, “In 2002, Republican line-drawers packed every Democratic vote they could find in southwestern Pennsylvania into Murtha’s district in a bid to force Murtha into a difficult primary and shore up the neighboring 4th and 18th CDs for the GOP. But like so many other Appalachian districts dependent on federal largess, the 12th CD’s political trend line is awful for Democrats. This district was the only in the country carried by Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004 to vote for GOP presidential nominee John McCain four years later. At the outset of the decade, this was a safe Democratic seat. Now, this seat is a point more Republican than the national average.”

Under Pennsylvania law, Democrat Governor Ed Rendell must schedule a special election date within ten days of the proclamation of a vacancy, with the election to take place no sooner than 60 days after that proclamation, meaning it could be held on the same date as the May 18 primary election. Rendell says he’ll “soon decide” whether to have a special election to fill Murtha’s seat or if he’ll just hold the election on primary day, May 18, the  Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. However, Rendell said his “inclination is to save the state money by holding the special election on primary day in May.”

Pennsylvania has a closed primary “and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans almost 2-to-1 in the 12th Congressional District” , said Cook. Additionally, local primaries tend to have a strong turnout among Democrats in the 12th district. But as we saw in Massachusetts last month, Republicans and Independents will turn out in large numbers if they feel they have a chance to win.

First Read says the race “will be a real test for the National Republican Congressional Committee. In the last two years, the NRCC has had an abysmal record in special elections, losing in places from Mississippi and Louisiana to Upstate New York (NY-20 and NY-23). Make no mistake, this special has the potential to be VERY competitive. Murtha held his seat since 1974. But John McCain narrowly won the district in 2008; in fact, Murtha’s district in Western Pennsylvania was the only one in the country that voted for John Kerry in ‘04 and for McCain in ‘08. This is a hugely important contest for the NRCC; the early pressure is on them – especially after losing both New York specials in this political environment.”

There are already two Republicans in the race: businessman Tim Burns and unsuccessful 2008 Republican nominee William Russell, who Murtha defeated 58%-42%. Murtha had also drawn a primary challenge from veteran Ryan Bucchianeri, although there will likely be more Democrats entering the field now. Tuesday night the Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race to “toss-up”, one of 50 Democratic-held seats bearing that rating.